Covid-19 Watch: More Signs of Hope

Prepared by Professor Alan Whiteside, OBE, Chair of Global Health Policy, BSIA, Waterloo, Canada & Professor Emeritus, University of KwaZulu-Natal – www.alan-whiteside.com

Introduction

Many people in the UK increased the amount of exercise they did during lockdown. I had our family bicycles repaired, sadly before the government introduced the bike repair subsidy, and began going for relatively long rides in the countryside. One circuit goes past the end of our local airport. The runways were laid down during the second world war and they, as well as the taxiways, are extensive. As a result, there are a large number of aircraft parked here. I was finally able to identify the livery on seven or eight of the planes as belonging to Fly Bra, a Norwegian airline operating mainly in Sweden. The second largest group are British Airways aircraft. I wonder what will happen to them in the longer term.

In this blog I will make some predictions about what is going to happen. It is time to think about where we are going and how long this may take. The guest spot is taken by Ian Ralph on the incredibly important topic of lockdown and mental health.

The Lancet published the first nationwide, population-based seroprevalence study of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2. This was in Spain, at national and regional levels, with more than 61,000 participants. It was to provide ‘accurate prevalence figures according to sex, age—from babies to nonagenarians— and selected risk factors.’1 The results are fascinating. The national antibody prevalence was about 5%, with regional differences. Madrid’s prevalence was five times that of low-risk regions. A third of positive results were asymptomatic. There was no difference between men and women, little variation by age, and not much variation by occupation. Their conclusion:

“Despite the high impact of COVID-19 in Spain, prevalence estimates remain low and are clearly insufficient to provide herd immunity. This cannot be achieved without accepting the collateral damage of many deaths in the susceptible population and overburdening of health systems. In this situation, social distancing measures and efforts to identify and isolate new cases and their contacts are imperative for future epidemic control.”2

New Zealand went for over 100 days without any community infections. The nation was congratulating itself on its success. Then, on Monday 17th August, the country reported 13 new cases. Donald Trump said “Even New Zealand, did you see what’s going on in New Zealand? ‘They beat it, they beat it.’ It was like front page, they beat it, because they wanted to show me something,” he added. “The problem is, big surge in New Zealand … it’s terrible.”3 On the same day, the United States reported its highest daily total of 64,294 new cases. This is cognitive dissonance.
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Covid-19 Watch: Green Shoots!

Prepared by Professor Alan Whiteside, OBE, Chair of Global Health Policy, BSIA, Waterloo, Canada & Professor Emeritus, University of KwaZulu-Natal – www.alan-whiteside.com

Introduction

There had been no rain in Norwich for six weeks and the garden was looking decidedly wilted. Finally, on Sunday night, the heavens opened, and to the accompaniment of thunder and lightning, sheets of rain fell. The lawn had been brown and within 24 hours was transformed into a green swath. The rain butts filled within a few days as showers continued to march across East Anglia. It was a reminder that nature is beyond our control, and Covid-19 is a reminder that it can turn on us. Zoonotic events like the one that gave us SARS-Cov-2 are becoming more frequent. We must both prevent them through better stewardship, and be prepared for them. The Wall Street Journal has an interesting analysis: ‘A deadly coronavirus was inevitable. Why was no one ready?’ the subheading: ‘Scientists warned of a pandemic for decades, yet when Covid-19 arrived, the world had few resources and little understanding’. The authors conclude withdrawal of support to the Atlanta based Centers for Disease Control meant early warnings mechanisms were lost.1

In general, the epidemic is beginning to become more predictable and there are a growing number of countries where daily cases have peaked and are now falling. This includes South Africa, the subject of this week’s guest contribution, where the number of new cases peaked towards the end of July. Across much of Europe the daily number of new cases was declining but some countries, notably Spain, France and the Netherlands have, over the past week, reported increases. Boris Johnson’s government has imposed quarantines on people arriving from certain countries, the footnote sets out the complex governance in the UK.2 Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland have different rules and regulations regarding gathering and could, but don’t yet, have different quarantines.

In this blog I wanted to make some predictions about the future. It is time to think about where we are going and how long this may take. I am aware that this is inadvisable, after all Sir Arthur Conan Doyle’s Sherlock Holmes said: “It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts”.3 In addition, I am aware that this week’s offering is becoming too long, so I will hold that over for a week.
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Covid-19 Watch: Lockdowns and Economics

Prepared by Professor Alan Whiteside, OBE, Chair of Global Health Policy, BSIA, Waterloo, Canada & Professor Emeritus, University of KwaZulu-Natal – www.alan-whiteside.com1 and Dr Steven Forsythe, Deputy Director of Economics and Costing, Avenir Health

Introduction

After I began posting I promised to invite guest contributions. It is with great pleasure (and some relief) that this post focuses on the economics of Covid-19, written by friend and colleague Dr Steven Forsythe. Please, readers, feel free to suggest what you want covered in greater depth. The world is stirring as countries tentatively start the process of emerging from lockdown. This is a key topic for next week.2 I am adding three key, usually short, readings per week at the end of the blog.

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Invited Master’s Students Blogs from Waterloo

The following pieces were written by my students.

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A Collection of Student Posts

The following pieces were written by my students.

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Outcry of the Nation

The following post was written by Anastasia Zabludvoskaya.

Anastasia Zabludovskaya is a student of International Relations at University of Nottingham, UK. Currently she is taking part in Erasmus exchange programme at Universität Konstanz, Germany.


On October 27th, president Donald Trump has declared a long-awaited national emergency status on opioid crisis within the United States. According to CDC (US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention) data, opioid overdoses had reached its abnormal level in 2011 and has been growing since. However, its roots could be found in the beginning of the 1990s. The crisis has dominated the media for the past month and there are some basic questions that need urgent answers. I would like to explore what challenges the epidemic brings with it and what changes can be made to stop overdoses.

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Ebola Aftermath: The End or the Beginning?

The following post was written by Nina Fuchsová.

Nina Fuchsová is studying International Relations at the Anglo-American University in her home town, Prague, with the interest of contributing to the humanitarian sector in the future. The Ebola epidemics of 2014 became a great interest to her as she also devoted the topic to her bachelors thesis.


In the past, we experienced epidemics to eventually end. With the declaration of termination of the outbreak, they vanished from the news and general attention. This was the case with the 2014 outbreak of Ebola in the West Africa (mainly in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone). By June 2016 the epidemic was declared over in all countries1. However, for many, the epidemic is maybe over, but its ghostly presence remains. Survivors are facing austerity, joblessness, mental instability, permanent health damage and recently child survivors have been diagnosed with serious cataracts. Even so, many, on recovery, returned to fight Ebola as treatment center supporters.

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Economic Policy in an Interdependent World – “A Brave New World: Genetics, Insurance, and Policy Options in Evolving Times”

The following post was written by Kerry Solomon.

Kerry Solomon is a Graduate Research Fellow at the Centre for International Governance Innovation and a Master of International Public Policy Candidate at the Balsillie School of International Affairs 2016-2017. Her research interests include equity and global health.


Canada has protection from discrimination based on one’s race, religion, and sexual orientation; however, it may come as a surprise to some that genetics is not one of those grounds. In fact, Canada is the only G7 country that does not already have laws in place to protect its inhabitants from genetic discrimination. On a personal note, as someone of Ashkenazi Jewish heritage, I am at increased risk compared to the general population to have an inherited mutation in the genes BRCA1 and BRCA2. This means that that if I carry this mutation, I am at a much greater likelihood of developing breast or ovarian cancer. Does this leave me vulnerable to discrimination based on my genetics?

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Economic Policy in an Interdependent World – Let’s Talk About It: Men and Mental Health

The following post was written by Jeremy Wagner.

Jeremy is a Graduate Research Fellow at the Centre for International Governance Innovation and a Master of International Public Policy Candidate at the Balsillie School of International Affairs. His research interests are in food security and public health.


Openly discussing depression and anxiety can be difficult for anyone who struggles with their mental health — but for men, the cultural baggage of traditional masculinity bears with it unique challenges.

There’s an obvious stigma when it comes to men and anxiety. Research suggests many men find it difficult to disclose anxiety and depression symptoms. In a society where “being a man” is conflated with being stoic, it’s hard for men to come forward and reveal they struggle with their mental health. As a result, it goes unheard; it hides in the shadows.

Yet, it’s a chronic public health issue. Anxiety is systemic in men and women alike; an estimated 11.6% of Canadians aged 18 years or older have a depression or anxiety disorder. Gendered social constructions ensure that mental health experiences can vary between men and woman.

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Fit | Unfit

The following post was written by Jessica Powell, Master of International Public Policy 2015-2016, The Balsillie School of International Affairs, Waterloo, Canada


I have been in and out of various gyms for years. I will just start to make progress, then life gets busy and I stop attending for a while. And each time I want to start working out again, I think to myself, ‘I need to build up confidence before I can return to a gym. I have to lose some weight before I feel comfortable being in a gym’.

I have recently realized I am not the only one who feels uncomfortable in this environment. I believe fitness institutions have become places for elite users. The divide between those who are fit and those who are unfit has been increased by a ‘fitness culture’ which marginalizes those who are in average or less-than-average shape, and this deters regular people from beginning their own fitness journey.

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