Prepared by Professor Alan Whiteside, OBE, Chair of Global Health Policy, BSIA, Waterloo, Canada & Professor Emeritus, University of KwaZulu-Natal – www.alan-whiteside.com

Introduction

Spring is well entrenched in Norfolk. The leaves are appearing with great speed, the daffodils are past their best, and it is delightfully warm in the sunshine. Traditionally Spring is a time of regeneration and hopefulness. This is certainly the case in the United Kingdom where the Covid-19 pandemic seems to be under control. The number of new cases has fallen dramatically and has, in turn, been tracked by the decreases in hospitalisations and deaths. As readers of this blog know, although I try to track the global pandemic, I follow events in Canada – particularly Ontario, South Africa, and the UK especially closely.

In my last communique I reported receiving my first AstraZeneca inoculation. This week I am delighted to report that my partner received her second shot. Once again, the location was the food court at the Castle Mall Shopping Centre in the city. The procedure was a model of efficiency, although on a Sunday afternoon, it was quiet. We were in and out in 15 minutes. I asked if they would consider giving me a second dose. I want to be fully protected when I travel in a few weeks. We had an unhurried discussion, and the upshot was that, although they were willing to do the inoculation, we agreed I should wait a couple of weeks. The reason for waiting was that the immunity would be better if there were a longer gap, and, they thought, side effects should be less intense. I cannot praise the NHS and all the voluntary services that are making this happen enough.

The daily UK report on the virus has been of consistent good news. The reported number of new cases, hospitalisations and deaths continue to fall, while the number vaccinated is rising rapidly, including those who have received second doses. This is not the case around the world, the situation in Brazil and India is particularly bleak, not only are the rates going up, but the numbers are extremely high. A quick look at the excess death data gives a sense of bad the epidemic is by country. The New York Times does not seem to have kept their graphs up to date, the Economist has.¹ Elsewhere there is cause for cautious optimism, but the price is constant vigilance. The economic, social, and psychological costs remain uncertain. In the UK this uncertainty will continue until the furlough scheme has ended. That will be when we understand how many people have lost their incomes. This will not just be those on furlough but so many small businesses who will either close or may fail.
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Prepared by Professor Alan Whiteside, OBE, Chair of Global Health Policy, BSIA, Waterloo, Canada & Professor Emeritus, University of KwaZulu-Natal – www.alan-whiteside.com

Introduction

I have just finished reading Hilary Mantel’s latest (nearly 900 page) book, The Mirror and the Light, the last in her Thomas Cromwell trilogy. It is set during the reign of Henry VIII; it opens with the execution of Anne Boleyn and ends with Cromwell’s own beheading in 1540. I am halfway through George Alagiah’s book, The Burning Land, ‘a gripping, pacey thriller about corruption and homicide in South Africa’. Both are worth reading.

But what does this have to do with Covid-19? One of the problems with being immersed in a world-changing event like this pandemic is having a sense of proportion. Mantel’s work provides this. It is a window into the lives, hopes and fears of people 500 years ago. It is a realisation of the futility of much of what went on among fallible people. Alagiah interviewed me about HIV, more than 30 years ago, when he was a BBC correspondent based in Zimbabwe. His book is a realistic window into the struggles in South Africa of a few years ago. This is the pre-Covid-19 world. I wondered how it would change if it were written today. Will it date? Unfortunately, I don’t have Richard Horton’s book, The COVID-19 Catastrophe: What’s Gone Wrong and How to Stop It Happening Again, so that review will have to wait.

There is no startling new information this week. The numbers continue to rise at a truly alarming rate. The Americas are worst affected. In England pubs and other social centres are set to open on 4th July. The efforts to find treatments and develop vaccines continue, but global political and epidemiologic leadership remain lacking.

I am delighted to include a piece written by Jonathan Crush and Zhenzhong Si on ‘COVID-19 and Food Security in the Global South’. Under ‘Responses’ I have used the Association of Science of South Africa statement, lots of common sense there.

There are three items listed in the reference section. All three help to understand risks and should be of interest. We are getting a clearer sense of the disease.
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